On March 9, 2023, Russia once again attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Russians damaged generation and distribution facilities in eight regions of Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia NPP sustained significant damage, and the last line of communication between the occupied power plant and the Ukrainian power grid was disconnected.
How the attack on Ukraine's energy system began
On February 24, 2022, Russian forces bombed Ukraine's energy infrastructure for the first time, causing significant damage to several power plants, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. These actions had serious consequences for Ukraine's energy security and regional stability.
Before the Russian aggression, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant produced about 20% of the country's electricity. The attack led to the shutdown of two of the six reactors. Ukraine was forced to reduce electricity consumption by 10% to cope with the loss of power, which led to blackouts in some parts of the country.
The explosion was not the first time Russia has attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure. In 2015, Russian-backed separatists seized control of several coal mines in the Donbas region, disrupting coal supplies to Ukraine and causing blackouts. The attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was a continuation of Russia's strategy of using energy as a weapon to destabilize Ukraine.
Threat to Ukraine's power system as a result of the aggressor's offensive
In the first months of the war, Ukraine's electricity sector suffered significant damage due to the actions of the occupation forces. As of mid-August 2022, more than 50% of Ukraine's thermal capacity, 30% of solar, and 90% of wind generation were out of commission.
However, even amidst the significant damage and destruction, the energy sector continued to be a powerful source of exports for the country. In the summer of 2022, Ukraine supplied energy to a number of countries, including Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova.
Missile attacks on the country's energy system
In the fall, after successful counteroffensives by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and on the eve of the heating season, the invaders changed their tactics, focusing on terrorist missile attacks on the Ukrainian energy system.
The Price of the State channel has calculated the number and cost of missile attacks on Ukraine.
Accounting of rocket attacks carried out by the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine with the aim of disabling the power system of our country
- October 10-12 - 84 missiles
- October 21-22 - 33 missiles
- October 31 - 55 missiles
- November 15 - 96 missiles
- November 23 - 67 missiles
- December 05 - 70 missiles
- December 16 - 76 missiles
- December 29 - 69 missiles
- December 31 - January 1 - 31 missiles
- January 14 - 33 missiles
- January 26 - 55 missiles
- February 10 - 71 missiles
- March 09 - 81 missiles
A total of 821 missiles in 5 months.
And this is without taking into account UAV attacks!
According to estimates, the total cost of the missiles fired is $7.462 billion.
Consequences of missile attacks
The missile attacks left most regions without electricity. Ukrenergo was forced to introduce consumption limits for households.
In its January 2023 Inflation Report, the NBU forecasted the impact of the electricity shortage caused by the destruction of power plants and network infrastructure on Ukraine's economy:
The destruction of Ukraine's energy system as a result of missile strikes leads to GDP losses due to lower production and reduced consumer demand, higher inflation due to increased business costs, and losses for foreign trade, primarily due to increased imports of oil products and energy equipment.
The NBU's baseline scenario assumes a relatively quick restoration of the power system due to repairs and prompt supply of power equipment.
"Given the extent of the damage, the Ukrainian power system has demonstrated high flexibility and adaptability. Ukrainian power engineers have gained unique experience in maneuvering low-power grids, and the physical protection of power facilities has been strengthened. Businesses are also adapting to such conditions: many companies have provided themselves with autonomous generation, so the economy is partially operating even during interruptions in electricity supply," the NBU report says.
The situation at the beginning of March 2023
Despite the apocalyptic scenarios of a total blackout in Ukraine, most Ukrainians spent the last month of winter and the first days of spring with electricity.
As of the beginning of March: all types of generations have started working, and there is no shortage. Street lighting has returned to the cities.
Street lighting switched on in Kharkiv (photo by Kharkiv Times, 8.03.23)
This happened thanks to the powerful assistance of Ukraine's partners and the heroic efforts of our power engineers.
The European Union has provided emergency energy assistance to Ukraine, including gas and electricity supplies. The United States and other countries have also provided financial and technical support to help rebuild damaged power plants and diversify Ukraine's energy sources.
State of affairs in the power system as of March 9, 2023
Due to a missile hit, the Zaporizhzhia power plant is de-energized and switched to blackout mode for the sixth time during the occupation. Power units No.5 and No.6 are being put into cold shutdown. 18 diesel generators have been switched on to supply ZNPP's own needs.
"The actions of the entire international community are urgently needed to withdraw the racist terrorist groups from the territory of Zaporizhzhia NPP, transfer it under the full control of a competent legitimate operator and restore the conditions for maintaining nuclear, radiation and physical safety of the nuclear facility," Energoatom emphasizes.
At the same time, in case Ukraine regains control over ZNPP, its integration into the power grid is expected only in the second half of 2024 due to possible mining of the territory and damage to equipment.
Other energy infrastructure facilities have already resumed operations.
"Restoration work continues at thermal power plants damaged during missile and drone attacks. Electricity is being imported," Ukrenergo said.
"The energy system of Ukraine remains intact, despite the attempts of the Russian occupiers to destroy it," said Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal in his Telegram channel.
What's next
Ukraine's Renovation League ONOVA in cooperation with the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine launched a project to record the destroyed power system facilities using the ONOVA GIS HAB geographic information service.
ONOVA GIS HAB is a digital tool for quick and efficient management decision-making, allowing authorized persons to analyze the damage and organize work to quickly restore the system's performance.
In addition, at the initiative of the PU "Ukrainian Fund of Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving ", a member of the League ONOVA, in partnership with the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine and international organizations, work is underway to provide power-generating equipment for communities, educational and healthcare institutions, and agricultural facilities. Our joint efforts helped to satisfy a request from the city of Kremenchuk for generators for energy companies. We are working to provide power-generating equipment to other communities in the country.
We support our defenders and thank the air defense forces and power engineers for their work.
We will survive. We will win. We will rebuild.